Sunday, September 25, 2011

Election Limbo Part II, Day 1: Can We Tell Who Won?

Since we won’t have election results to talk about until at least October 8, and we have to amuse ourselves somehow, we’ll take a look at some of the numbers that are available and try to figure out what they mean.  So, we’ll give you some cold hard truth, and then we’ll tell you what we think it might mean.  Don’t argue with the truth, but feel free to give your opinions, based on facts, for what you think happened yesterday.
First, we’ll start off using the June election as our model.  Smith won by 5 or 7 votes, depending… Baker got the most votes in the recount, during which hundreds of votes disappeared because the election commission screwed up.
And let’s not debate that… the election commission says it screwed up the recount, and the Supreme Court went back and counted them all and found the votes were there all along.
Anyway, the election commission can’t count the ballots, but they can at least tell us how many there are.  And they have.   There were 8787 ballots cast yesterday, compared to 8054 on election day in June.  So, can we tell anything by where those 733 additional ballots were cast?

In June, Baker won District 1 and District 2, Smith won districts 3 and 5 and 4 was pretty much a toss up.

According to our math, there were 13 more votes in District 1 this time around, and 122 more votes in District 2.  If these new voters vote like their neighbors did in June, Baker will get more of those votes than Smith.  In District 3 there were 276 new votes and in District 5 there were 134 new votes.  Again, it looks like these voters would be more likely to vote for Smith than Baker, and since there 275 more of those votes than in districts 1 and 2, Baker might be worried.

There are 188 new votes in District 4, which as we mentioned was a toss up, but who knows how those will end up?

Based on the walkin, from the looks of it Smith had a good day.

Also, there is the matter of the 4000 additional mail-in votes.  Smith tends to do well on those, and won them in June, so the fact that there are more of them could also be troubling Baker.